Greetings Earthling,

Welcome to another edition of Bitcoin Breakdown, where we journey together towards a global Bitcoin Standard.

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Happy readings! 👽️ 

📰 HEADLINES

Zapple Pay has discovered a solution for Bitcoin tipping on Damus. The innovative service allows bitcoin exchange using emojis within the Bitcoin-friendly Nostr client app. This development follows Apple's threat to remove Damus from its App Store for permitting Bitcoin tipping, a practice that the company foolishly considers akin to selling digital media. Damus has since eliminated this feature, limiting users to exchanging profile-level tips. Nevertheless, some independent developers have now identified this workaround, arguing that Apple will face difficulties in intervening due to the third-party nature of their service.

Standard Chartered published a research report forecasting the price of Bitcoin to reach $50,000 by the end of this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024. The report cites key factors such as miners hodling their coins and halting supply additions. With miners currently earning more from transaction fees than ever before, they have less need to sell their stack to meet operational expenses. This trend results in fewer bitcoins entering the open market, enhancing its scarcity and potentially driving up the price.

Ordinal inscriptions have surged following the launch of BRC-69, a token standard that has reduced the fees associated with inscribing ordinals by roughly 90%. Using 'recursive inscriptions,' BRC-69 allows you to bypass the 4-megabyte limit by utilizing data from existing inscriptions to create new ones. This enables Ordinals to grow without clogging the network as they did before. According to Dune Analytics, the number of inscriptions steadily rose from 62,775 on July 3 to 385,920 on July 9.

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🏆 TOP STORIES

Arthur Hayes Writes On How Bitcoin Will Become the Chosen AI Currency (15 min read)

In his recent essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, argues that Bitcoin will be the preferred currency for AI in the future. Hayes observes that the traditional financial system is unsustainable for AI-powered economies and highlights the financial needs of AI machines. AIs would require a blockchain-based digital payments system as traditional banking systems are inadequate for AI-powered economies. AIs rely on data and compute power as critical resources. Therefore, Bitcoin would be the currency of choice for AIs due to its energy preservation and censorship-resistant attributes. Hayes further explores the value and origin of gold, fiat currencies, and Bitcoin, emphasizing Bitcoin's potential as a currency for AIs.

Bob Loukas on Where We Are in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle (5 minute read)

Bob Loukas is a market analyst who produces in-depth videos that detail his evaluations of the Bitcoin market, along with his predictions for future trends. His latest analysis, titled 'Green Lights,' is summarized in this tweet. According to Loukas, the 4-Year cycle began approximately 6 months ago. While some participants from the previous cycle are still exiting the market, smart money has been accumulating since the beginning of this year. Based on Loukas' analysis, the last two cycles have peaked around month 35 of the 48-month cycle, which serves as his base case for this cycle. He explains how one might play this cycle to accumulate Bitcoin while maintaining position sizing that prevents them from being shaken out during inevitable drawdowns.

The Mysterious Life And Death Of Mircea Popescu (18 min read)

This post by siggy47 on Stacker News discusses the life and controversial nature of Mircea Popescu, an influential figure in the Bitcoin community who reportedly died in a drowning incident. Popescu was known for his blog called 'Trilema,' where he shared his thoughts on various topics, including Bitcoin. He held strong opinions about Bitcoin and its development, often criticizing core developers and advocating for a conservative approach to code changes. Popescu was also associated with offensive and provocative statements, which earned him the reputation of the 'Father Of Bitcoin Toxicity.' The piece highlights the secrecy surrounding his life and death, including his relationships, and the suspicions surrounding the circumstances of his drowning. It’s a worthwhile read.

Jimmy Song On Bitcoin Adoption (3 min read)

Song discusses the divide within the Bitcoin community regarding its adoption. One narrative, backed by venture capitalists and altcoin enthusiasts, stresses marketing for mainstream adoption but often leads to scams and losses for newcomers. The second narrative emphasizes understanding Bitcoin's value as sound money, which requires patience, persistence, and intellectual effort. Long-term Bitcoin users support this approach, often driven by financial woes and a desire to escape the legacy financial system. This viewpoint downplays marketing and celebrity endorsements, focusing instead on individuals recognizing the detrimental effects of inflation and seeking alternatives like Bitcoin.

Corruption of Gatekeepers (5 min read)

This piece, also by Jimmy Song, was recently made available by Bitcoin Magazine. It argues that gatekeeping, as a function in various sectors, from venture capitalism to journalism to academia, has become corrupt, complacent, and stifles innovation. Over time, the deterioration of these systems becomes evident but is often attributed to other causes. The advent of fiat money exacerbates this issue by artificially keeping failing institutions alive, leading to the proliferation of 'zombie companies' and further gatekeeper corruption. Song argues that these gatekeepers hinder creativity and promote a system that values political and nepotistic ties over merit. The solution to this corruption is the decentralization and transparency brought by Bitcoin, which will eliminate the issues of gatekeeping and allow a free market to truly thrive.

Replacing The World’s Preferred Store Of Value, Bitcoin Will Make Housing Affordable Again (4 min read)

In this piece, Leon Wankum discusses the transformation of real estate from a living or production utility to a speculative investment tool, fueled by the end of the gold standard in 1971 and the ensuing inflation. As real estate prices skyrocketed, it led to unaffordability for many, escalated rents, and increased wealth inequality, as properties increasingly served as loan collaterals. Wankum proposes the solution of using Bitcoin as an alternative store of value, due to its several advantageous properties such as finite supply, portability, and censorship resistance. He suggests that Bitcoin adoption would redirect investment from real estate, causing property prices to collapse to their utility value, thus making homeownership more affordable. A Bitcoin Standard would also lower rents due to its decentralized and less regulated nature.

IMF Working Paper on Taxing Bitcoin Sees 'Quasi-Anonymity' as Greatest Challenge (70 min read)

A recent IMF working paper discusses the challenges faced by legacy institutions in integrating Bitcoin into tax systems. The authors see no problem in taxing miners when applying the neutrality principle of taxing Bitcoin in the same way as comparable instruments. However, Bitcoin is both an 'investment asset' and a medium of exchange, which poses some challenges. The paper further highlights that the 'quasi-anonymity' of Bitcoin poses a significant obstacle to 3rd party reporting since it was designed to avoid reliance on centralized institutions that work with tax authorities. The emergence of centralized institutions like KYC-enforcing exchanges has however mitigated this risk. The authors advise governments to apply AML rules and 3rd party reporting requirements. Nevertheless, there’s still the risk that transactions may shift to decentralized or peer-to-peer platforms, limiting 3rd party visibility. However, they are hopeful that 'investors' may eventually trust 'well-regulated' centralized institutions more than peer-to-peer and decentralized exchanges. [Here’s to proving them wrong.🥃]

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​​Fraudcoin - 1000 Years with Inflation as a Policy by Rune Østgard. A “journey of money” from the Vikings through modern society to demonstrate how inflation redistributes wealth from the working and middle classes to the upper class, speculators, and the state.

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📖 GUIDES & EXPLAINERS

Potential Inheritance Setup for Hardware Wallet (8 minute read)

This thread discusses a novel multisig setup that enhances security and eliminates the need for multiple seed plates and wallet files. It relies on the BIP85 protocol, which allows for the creation of additional seed words and passwords. The process involves generating seed entropy using a Coldcard hardware wallet, recording the seed words on paper, destroying the seed on the hardware wallet, and repeating the process with a second hardware wallet. The multisig setup requires both hardware wallets and can be reconstructed using the seed plate and passphrase. Geographic key distribution is employed for added security. The thread also explores game theory implications and discusses the possibility of extending the setup to a 3-of-3 multisig configuration and incorporating inheritance plans.

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